Bakamo Public for the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Migration narratives in Europe
One year of public social media conversation about migration in all 28 EU member states, read in each country's own language. The study found five narratives present in every country. What differs from country to country is the weight each one carries.
The five narratives
Found first by reading in six countries, then confirmed in all 28. Each narrative is a topic, not a stance: it holds both anti-migrant and pro-migrant voices. The share is post-weighted across the 28 conversations.
Security
Migration as a way to import crime and terror, and the borders, police and fences that answer it.
Highest in Hungary at 86.6%. Leads in 13 of 28.
Identity
Fear of losing national customs, language and faith; whether a mixed society can hold.
Highest in Germany at 34.3%. Leads in 1 of 28.
Economy
A zero-sum game for benefits, housing and jobs; who deserves support and who is cheating.
Highest in Denmark at 24.4%. Leads in 0 of 28.
Humanitarian
The journey, the rescue ships, the camps; and the counter-claim that most are not real refugees.
Highest in Spain at 94.6%. Leads in 14 of 28.
Demography
Ageing, pensions and labour shortages; whether migrants will work, and whether locals want them to.
Highest in Lithuania at 19.0%. Leads in 0 of 28.
Which story leads where
Each tile is a country, coloured by its leading narrative. The small number is the fear share: security and identity added together. Tap a tile to open the country.
The line through Europe
Security leads from Estonia down to Bulgaria and across Austria and Germany. Humanitarian talk leads along the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. The Netherlands is the one country where identity leads outright. Denmark is the one where the economy comes close to leading.
Fear where migrants are not
Hungary and Poland had among the fewest asylum seekers in the union and the highest fear shares. In both, the report found the conversation kept alive by domestic politics and by news of crime abroad rather than by migrants present in the country.
The shape of each country's conversation
Each bar is one country's year of conversation, split by narrative. Click a bar to read what the conversation is really about. Sort to see the fault lines.
Where fear grows, compassion shrinks
The report's central finding, drawn to scale. Each dot is a country. Up is more security and identity talk; right is more humanitarian talk. Dot size follows the log of conversation volume.
How to read it
Countries sit on a line from top left to bottom right. In the top left, migrants are scarcely present and the conversation is about threat. In the bottom right, the fight is over whether the state helps too much or too little.
Humanitarian talk is not the same as support. In France and Spain, anti-migrant voices argue inside the humanitarian frame: these people are not real refugees, so they do not deserve help.
Two countries sit off the line. The United Kingdom is the one large conversation high on both security and humanitarian talk. The Netherlands is the one country where identity leads.
What the local reading found
The country-by-country reading found that the narratives are carried by local issues and by three anxieties: fear for personal safety, lack of economic stability, and a sense of lost cultural identity. Each country report names which one is at work.
Personal safety
Crime, terror and border control. Strongest where the security narrative leads.
Named in 14 of 28 country reports. A country can appear under more than one.
AT · BG · CZ · DE · EE · GR · HR · HU · IT · LT · MT · PL · SE · SI
Economic stability
Welfare, housing, wages and emigration. Often the real subject under a migration thread.
Named in 13 of 28 country reports. A country can appear under more than one.
BG · DK · ES · FI · IE · IT · LT · LU · LV · PT · RO · SK · UK
Cultural identity
Customs, language, faith and sovereignty. Strongest in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.
Named in 12 of 28 country reports. A country can appear under more than one.
BE · CY · CZ · DK · ES · FR · LU · LV · MT · NL · SE · UK
Before and since
The EU 28 study is the largest of a series. Bakamo has read migration conversation in the local language since 2015, in Europe and beyond it.
- 2015HungaryOpen Society Foundations
How Hungarians discussed the refugee crisis, and how government communication entered that conversation.
Presented at ESOMAR 2016 - 2017 to 18EU 28Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
One year of conversation in every member state. The five narratives and their weight in each country. This page.
45M posts, 28 reports - 2020 to 21GermanyInternational Centre for Policy Advocacy
Islam, migration and integration in the German conversation, read again five years after 2015.
2.2M posts on migration - 2021TurkeyBakamo study
The Turkish conversation on Afghan arrivals in the month after Kabul fell.
1.3M mentions in August - 2023Turkey and TunisiaGallup International
People in transit from five countries, and the communities hosting them.
1.8M conversations, 24 months
Keep it current
The same reading can be repeated for one country or one migrant community, as a baseline and then in waves, so the shifts in the five narratives are seen as they happen.
Book a meetingAll the numbers
Share of each country's conversation by narrative, as printed in the 28 country reports. Where a report printed counts only, the share was computed from them.
| Country | Posts | Security | Identity | Economy | Humanitarian | Demography | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 68,400 | 65.2% | 1.6% | 11.0% | 22.0% | 0.2% | Security |
| Belgium | 360,300 | 14.5% | 22.0% | 3.2% | 59.4% | 0.9% | Humanitarian |
| Bulgaria | 96,000 | 51.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 20.4% | 18.3% | Security |
| Croatia | 84,000 | 61.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 34.8% | 0.6% | Security |
| Cyprus | 57,600 | 4.4% | 20.4% | 3.0% | 71.3% | 0.8% | Humanitarian |
| Czech Republic | 354,000 | 60.0% | 21.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | Security |
| Denmark | 156,000 | 29.5% | 14.7% | 24.4% | 28.2% | 2.5% | Security |
| Estonia | 11,100 | 68.2% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 18.2% | 5.9% | Security |
| Finland | 12,390 | 19.1% | 17.2% | 12.7% | 50.3% | 0.7% | Humanitarian |
| France | 7,236,000 | 4.9% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 85.6% | 0.2% | Humanitarian |
| Germany | 8,393,000 | 50.2% | 34.3% | 3.9% | 7.8% | 3.8% | Security |
| Greece | 208,700 | 51.8% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 27.8% | 9.6% | Security |
| Hungary | 385,100 | 86.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 8.3% | 0.3% | Security |
| Ireland | 525,600 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | 17.0% | Humanitarian |
| Italy | 7,465,000 | 34.4% | 0.5% | 18.9% | 45.2% | 1.1% | Humanitarian |
| Latvia | 45,300 | 35.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 39.0% | 12.0% | Humanitarian |
| Lithuania | 24,700 | 35.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 36.0% | 19.0% | Humanitarian |
| Luxembourg | 20,000 | 40.9% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 44.0% | 0.6% | Humanitarian |
| Malta | 68,400 | 22.0% | 20.0% | 5.0% | 47.0% | 6.0% | Humanitarian |
| Netherlands | 1,438,600 | 32.0% | 34.0% | 4.7% | 28.0% | 0.6% | Identity |
| Poland | 68,400 | 86.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 8.3% | 1.3% | Security |
| Portugal | 102,700 | 30.9% | 9.6% | 0.4% | 57.7% | 1.3% | Humanitarian |
| Romania | 364,600 | 64.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 19.9% | 5.6% | Security |
| Slovakia | 87,000 | 21.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 66.9% | 3.2% | Humanitarian |
| Slovenia | 231,300 | 44.8% | 18.5% | 5.2% | 22.3% | 9.2% | Security |
| Spain | 4,400,000 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 94.6% | 2.3% | Humanitarian |
| Sweden | 1,921,000 | 25.9% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 49.9% | 1.0% | Humanitarian |
| United Kingdom | 11,664,000 | 46.5% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 39.3% | 10.2% | Security |
Source: Bakamo Public for the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Migration Narratives in Europe, 2019, final report and 28 country reports. Data gathered with Talkwalker from public posts on news sites, forums, blogs, Twitter and Instagram. Facebook was not available. The series entries cite Bakamo for the Open Society Foundations, 2015; Bakamo for the International Centre for Policy Advocacy, 2021; Bakamo, Turkish Migration Discourse and Sentiment, 2021; Gallup International and Bakamo, 2023.